Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Heres where we think votes remain. In these elections, it was not the unpopularity of the GOP challengers that explained the discrepancies, but Manchins extraordinary popularity as a former governor and relatively conservative Democrat. Our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D). We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Figure 1 displays the distribution of Senate contests based on the margin of victory for winning candidate. What all of these examples demonstrate, however, is that exceptionally popular or unpopular candidates or unusual circumstances can sometimes produce results in Senate contests that are well out of line with what would be expected based on factors such as presidential partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment. See the rest of our predictions. If it is a moderate Republican candidate like Chris Sununu, there is a chance of New Hampshire flipping red. These numbers reflect first-choice votes, After the midterms, America and its democracy look stronger, A Republican victory will be much smaller than Democrats feared. Nov. 9, 2022, House districts rated as tossups have been called mostly in favor of Democrats so far, with one state as a glaring exception: New York. To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. Nov. 8, 2022, Senator Raphael Warnock is out with an early lead in Georgia, but it could all be just a mirage. In Arizona, Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated the appointed Republican incumbent, Martha McSally, while in Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker and former congressional aide, defeated Republican incumbent David Perdue, and Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, defeated appointed Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. That being said, with a 56 member Democratic senate, four Republicans Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are likely to not abuse the filibuster, letting multiple legislation pass through with certain compromise. Senate Seats By We got to 59 percent in Colorado in 2022. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is still a heavy favorite, but his party appears set to lose ground in California. John Fetterman. First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. . This discrepancy reflects the small state bias of the Senate, which results in an overrepresentation of Republican-leaning states. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. Little to minimum campaigning would be required to secure a win for the following states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. , Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Virginias Seventh Congressional District. Alicia Parlapiano If DeSantis can energize the MAGA base while partially reversing the educational realignment that Trump ushered in, thats a major problem, no? Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. Based on New York Times/Siena College polls in four states. , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. Seth Magaziner, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Rhode Islands Second Congressional District. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. The full forecaster analysis can be found here (subscription required). These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. Nov. 8, 2022, Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The polls just closed in Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. Maggie Astor But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, and Joe Lombardo, the Las Vegas-area sheriff who was endorsed by Donald Trump. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. Senate elections held between 2012 and 2020, including special elections. Our Senate Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Senate race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. Districts where the margin of victory was under 10%: Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Explore the full list of features on our site map. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. We also have a Live Forecast for the House. It was really a late-covid manifestation, and as covid has receded in peoples lives, the conditions that created that conversation have evaporated. Nov. 8, 2022. , Kathy Hochul, New Yorks first female governor, beat Rep. Lee Zeldin in the states closest race in decades. The final forecast lists six Toss Up races, one more than two years ago. The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022 | CNN Politics It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. Democrats extremely narrow majorities in Congress are highly vulnerable, and the traditional midterm penalty suffered by the party in power has Republicans likely to gain upward of 15 House seats, and they have a good shot of taking full control of Congress. We also have a Live Forecast for the House.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); We are using the Associated Press's election calls to take races off the board. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. | Privacy Policy, The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis. Lazaro Gamio However, there was a noticeable discrepancy between the success rates of Republican and Democratic candidates in states won by their partys presidential candidate. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. Maggie Astor Explore the full list of features on our site map. contact info. Maggie Astor We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. Along with the powerful influence of presidential partisanship, incumbency continues to have a substantial impact on Senate elections, with the average incumbent adding about 8 points of margin to her partys expected vote. Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. 2022 Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. Nov. 8, 2022, Results will begin coming in at 6 p.m. Eastern as the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, but the pace will really pick up with a slew of closings at 7 and 8. However the state already bans abortions, and that is unlikely to change. However, this has become increasingly difficult, as partisan polarization has deepened. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. Vance won Ohio handily even as almost every part of the state voted more for Democrats than they did in 2020. By doing that, hes going to create a permission structure for the whole Democratic Party to follow him. Contests were only counted once per cycle, so the 2013 Massachusetts and New Jersey special elections were omitted because those same seats were also contested in the 2014 November general election. John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. . Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. Maggie Astor Alicia Parlapiano , Gov. Nov. 8, 2022, Rural counties in Virginias 7th district are counting votes more quickly than its most populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. Abortion rights were put to the test in the midterm elections. Im Fivey Fox! Two findings stand out in this table. However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and Wisconsin, in which their predicted victory margin is just over 10 points, indicating that these seats could potentially be in play. But this work can get done during the campaign. Wisconsins Senate race is leaning toward Senator Ron Johnson, his chambers most endangered Republican incumbent, according to our estimates. We predict most Americans will be led by Democraticgovernors. . Albert Sun and Pa., competitive state races with consequences for abortion remain too close to call. Senate Midterm Election Results 2022 | CNN Politics 2022 Senate Election Predictions - Medium Several other special elections held concurrently with the general election are included, as well as the 2017 Alabama Senate special because it was only contested once during the 2018 cycle the seat was next contested as a regular election in the 2020 cycle. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. Alicia Parlapiano Democrats also won the Governors office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. I think its still immature. Welcome to our. The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. Senate Projection. , Gov. Were getting results for ballot measures related to abortion and reproductive rights in Kentucky, Michigan and Vermont. Based on the above assumptions and expected results, the Democrats are set to gain 6 seats, bringing their tally to 56 seats. Do you think that some of these big climate and infrastructure investments which are going to spur green manufacturing jobs in some very red places can shift the paradigm on how working-class White people view climate change and government spending? Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. Nate Cohn Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. Gingrich 2022 Prediction: Senate Will Go +3 to +5 With GOP Pickups in NH, NV, AZ & GA Without Runoff, +44 Seats In House. Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke.