You may have noticed that in all that speculation, I may have cracked the case at most in the sense of creating some structural microtears in it. While the possibility of pure fear killing a person is medically speaking speculative at best, extreme fear can certainly cause a lethal heart attack in a person with a heart that is in a less than stellar condition. What should be done first is a comparison with the distribution of times at which people from a random non-Missing 411 sample disappear in the same areas. While you could come across a person randomly in the forest, it is much harder to be able to single people out, avoid being killed by our weapons (or leaving the dead to be found by us), and cover ones tracks. At the very least, it would require a vast, perfect conspiracy, and thats never a good go-to explanation. Anything to do with poop may be inherently silly, but as recent advances in medical science show, gut microbiome is essential for our physical health and it interacts with our brain, affecting our mood. These are mainly the German connection, the religion connection, and the military connection, or a combination of two or all three. Dogs arent machines, which inevitably means they must have some sort of rate of error, some better and worse days, while scent can be affected by environmental conditions. Dave also mentions legends from Hawaii and Indonesia which explain that you should not wear bright clothing if you dont want to offend some kind of spirits, or that some spirits demand that you lie naked face down in their presence, which is how Missing 411 people often are found. When you have such data, a lot of it, about a state of an object, and it doesnt make any sense how it got there from its last known state, what youve got is a proper anomaly. This implies that the way in which these people disappear involves their rapid incapacitation, or at least severe confusion. If I sum it all up: This about covers what I would like to say about this subject at this moment in time. Sometimes to children too young to be able to dress or undress themselves. In the Missing 411 cases, I believe that the percentage of how many causes of death are reported as unknown is far higher than 5%, while even many of the deaths that were reported as death by exposure or drowning seem to be questionable. Put simply, this profile point is something that makes it harder to find a missing person and easier for people to get more lost. Or its supposed to be, anyway. Worldbuilder, magister, change catalyst. The AI then has to adapt, and will probably never be able to do so perfectly and permanently. The only conventional explanation for reliable amnesia is when it is induced by some sort of chemical. How odd is enough? Here I have to give credit to Seriah Azkath and the Snake Brothers, who pointed out the likely direction of causality regarding this profile point on a recent Where Did the Road Go show. Sure, it would be somewhat difficult to hide the act of construction, but again, even your standard government can pull that off. All 185 cases fit a narrowly defined profile that was refined after researching thousands of missing person reports; these cases are the most difficult, defy common sense, challenge conventional wisdom and remain . I would just say that if the two samples have very similar distributions of the times at which people disappear, its likely that theres nothing to it other than people get lost at the times at which they tend to be on a hike. While our current medical science is far from perfect, the real number of truly unknown causes of death appears to be quite low, somewhere in the range of 1.34 per 100,000 (in the U.K.) and 15 per 100,000 (in the U.S.). Its not crazy talk, its a genius speculation of one of the sci-fi greats. The question is, why would a sophisticated perpetrator remove (and sometimes return) clothing, and not understand how it works? A type of place from which Missing 411 people tend to vanish and at which they tend to appear. Its also unusual for such high percentage of adults to remember what happened, but then not report it, to not even make anything up, which would be the only normal alternative explanation. Missing 411: The Hunted is based on the book by Paulides, which documents 185 cases of missing peoples from four different countries. Here are the most significant repeating profile points with my critical commentary as to their potential strengths and shortcomings: According to Paulides, every person should be found, especially if they are a small child or if theyre mentally or physically disabled and therefore presumably unable to travel long distances. But still, even assuming that theyre intentional omissions and not just Dave not knowing a fact or Dave keeping a fact to himself in the interest of the family of the victim, its very human. Some have their remains found miles away from where they disappeared from, others are gone without a trace. If an area has been searched dozens of times, chances are the search was sufficient. Much like Dave eventually had to include urban cases that he was initially avoiding, I believe the next spoke in the wheel (as Dave likes to call it) will have to be cases that share many of the Missing 411 profile points without the person actually going missing. It makes for good storytelling, and beyond that, its important to understand that everyone has a bias. Connection: Directed by David Paulides. Most of this was pretty much what I expected having some idea of what David Paulides has investigated but if you have Amazon Prime and are interested, call this up and go to about about an hour and 15 minutes in and listen to the audio these guys recorded. Or to put it another way, a pattern of correlations is when the same things keep happening more frequently than they should by chance, while a pattern of coincidences is when unique, extremely unlikely events keep happening in connection to a person, event, phenomenon, etc. So far, as far as I know, Dave made the clusters map and the table of how far away small children were found. Paulides has classified over 1,440 missing persons cases under the Missing411 label. Scott Schumacher Without giving much away, the first messages that you put on the screen I believe are the thread you meant to weave into this movie..so that it could "shake the tree" so to speak. Similarly, I would also like to see a chart of Missing 411 cases by date of disappearance, or ideally both date and time, so that theres more to compare again with normal disappearances, and in the case of dates, also with tourist and hunting seasons, like any numbers of how many tourists or hunters can be found in the forest at what time of year. It only has to be cross-checked carefully with cases where paradoxical undressing could have realistically taken place. Apart from this (the fact that a personal attack is a logical fallacy, not a counterargument), if Dave incorrectly interprets some data point or a causal relation, its an error, not a crime. This doc centers on hunters. While the logical statistical bias of unexplained cases of missing people should be to involve more cases of no obvious cause of death than what you should expect on average for all deaths (since otherwise the cases would likely be explained), the apparent failure rate of medical examiners in the Missing 411 cases still seems wildly excessive to me. There is at least one case in which the dog was proven to have been almost certainly fed (venison), which might indicate some perpetrator may have been more respectful of the life of the dog than that of the human target, as well as there are cases of dogs likely not having spent time in the area where they got lost, like the one dehydrated dog found in a swampland, or a number of cases of dogs being found in a surprisingly good condition. Obviously, bad weather happening while a person is lost should also mean higher chance of them dying of exposure, but also limit the distance that the lost person can travel. I have discussed the German aspect a lot with some people who understand the relevant genetics, and it appears that of all the possible ethnic groups, it wouldnt make much sense to pick Germans. The forests that are not protected have much less regulated traffic, much lower biodiversity, are much more likely to be randomly cut down or otherwise messed with, and likely lack continuity to ancient times. In any event, I believe that Dave is correctly focusing on the cases where the most inexplicable travel speeds or distances took place. Who knows, maybe thats why the urban disappearances now tend to be targeted at young, physically and mentally fit people. With all that said, it would be interesting to take all of the people with the German origin within the Missing 411 sample and check whether their ancestors come from all over Germany, or if they all come from a specific region or regions inside of Germany (or Austria or Switzerland). How do you manipulate lividity of a corpse, like achieving none? Hunters have disappeared from wildlands without a trace for hundreds of years. After all, thats how a sudden health crisis or mental break would start. If you simulate a physical world and you want to interfere with it without rewriting natural laws all the time, you use any fuzziness or ambiguity within them, like chaotic probability, to essentially cheat. Somebody must have done their research and observed their daily routine for some time. This is the 2nd doc in the missing 411 series surrounding people disappearing in the wilderness for no reason. Former . Its basically just as magic as teleportation. The people who were disappeared while on the phone would only be different in the sense that they must have been targeted after they were already outside. Not surprisingly at all, these types of things are reported by alien abductees. Maybe its not used on or as effective for children, either because it would certainly kill them, or because their brains arent fully developed yet. Missing 411: The U.F.O. Profile points that make people more likely to go missing or to not be found in general (bad weather, dogs and trackers failing to track, etc.) They were missed by the exhaustive SAR campaign because. Ask Sherlock Holmes. Given that brain damage is almost never involved even in the cases where the Missing 411 subjects were found dead, theres no good explanation for high incidence of amnesia. The fact that phones today double as GPS locators and that they can record both audio and video and be connected to the internet at all times makes urban disappearances of people with phones suspicious. Regarding this profile point, I tend to agree with a number of people who say that Dave overestimates the weirdness of people leaving essential items behind, as you can easily do that when you dont think youll be gone long or when you just have a standard brain fart.